We’ve all watched the big Hollywood blockbusters, featuring the cliches of girls, explosions, giant tsunamis and other ridiculous special effects sequences (and yes I’m thinking of Roland Emmerich films such as ‘2012’ and ‘Day After Tomorrow’), but how likely is one of these treacherous events? Movies have often capitilised on man’s fear of the big apocalypse, but most watching never consider themselves facing the nightmares of the doomed characters in these visual, but not intellectual, masterpieces.
So what are the odds? Here is my list of apocalyptic possibilities:
(Please note that if a 10/10 possibility means a scenario is still highly unlikely in the next 100 years. In addition, a 10/10 damage rating is complete annihilation of civilization on Earth and a 1/10 is deaths and damage running into the millions, not billions. Also, in typical media fashion, each point will analyse worst case scenario)
10. Nuclear War - Despite the end of the cold war many analysts fear a dangerous Middle Eastern Arms race encapsulating the likes of Iran and Israel. Some also see the rise of the East a threat to World peace, with focus on China, India and of course North Korea. Possibility 6/10. Comparative damage rating 3/10.
9. Global Epidemic - With the recent scare stories of Swine and Bird Flu this is an issue trending now, especially with the recent box office topping ‘Rise of the Planet Apes’ which featured a pandemic that would wipe out humans and allow apes to take over the world. Although a serious threat, governments can do more about this than other apocalyptic, such as quarantine. Possibility 9/10. Damage rating 1/10.
8. Super Volcano - Yellowstone erupting is a well documented possibility. The eruption is predicted to be 1000 times more powerful than the Mount Saint Helen’s eruption of 1980, making two thirds of the US inhabitable and causing a giant ash cloud to block out the Sun, destroying crops and causing a financial meltdown. Fun stuff. Moreover, the eruption is long overdue in scientific terms. That means it could happen today, or in millions of years. Possibility 6/10. Damage rating 7/10.
7. Mega Tsunami - The island of La Palma just off West Africa houses a nice pretty volcano, that could cause the western slab of the island to slip into the Atlantic. This would create a a tsunami that would wipe out the North America’s Eastern seaboard, one of the most densely populated areas on Earth, bulldozing skyscrapers and causing millions of deaths. Brazil, Africa, Spain, Portugal and Britain would also be ripped apart by the wall of water. Possibility 6/10. Damage 7/10.
6. Reversal of Earth’s Magnetic Field - This wouldn’t just cause your satnav to go wrong. This would flip the North and South Pole, causing dangerous rays from space to dramatically increase cancer rates, and kill plankton, therefore decreasing the Earth’s oxygen levels. What’s more, solar flares won’t be stopped by the atmosphere’s magnetic defensive shield, enabling the flares to be free to fry the Earth. Thankfully, the ozone layer will stay intact so the ray damage would be limited, but the ozone can’t stay intact forever. I will finish this point on another worrying note: Scientists say this reversal is long overdue. Possibility 7/10. Damage 7.5/10
5. Solar Activity Variation - Increased solar activity can cause Superflares.Think of the film ‘Knowing’ . These magnetic subatomic outbursts could cause the Earth to fry, destroying everything and killing everyone, in worse case scenario. At the moment the probability of Solar flare risk is increasing, with solar activity levels reaching a peak in 2012. By contrast, decreased solar activity of just 1 percent could cause the Earth to plunge into a new ice age. Possibility 5/10 Damage 9/10
4. Rogue Black Holes - Little is known about these stellar corpses, who number 10 million and engulf other stars using pure gravity. Not even light can escape these galactic zombies. Anything from extreme climate shifts to Earth being thrown form it’s orbit into deep space could occur. Possibility 3/10. Damage 9/10.
3. Collapse of the vacuum - As the universe expands and cools, some scientists claim that new pockets of ‘false vacuum’ could appear, destroying everything. Possibility 1/10. Damage 10/10.
2. Gamma Ray Bursts - These cosmic flashes of light caused by dying stars are harmless in moderation, but when Earth is subject to a strong direct hit chaos ensues. A burst 1,000 light years away would be as big as the sun and would be responsible for a dramatic increase in skin cancer rates. Moreover, the burst would kill the puny photosynthetic plankton, thus lowering Earth’s precious oxygen levels. Possibility: UNKNOWN. Damage 8/10
1. Asteroid Impact - Films such as ‘Deep Impact’ have glorified and struck fear into viewers, and rightly so. No, don’t worry, a major asteroid strike is a highly unlikely possibility in the grand scheme of things. However, if there is a major strike life on Earth would cease to exist. In the most bone chilling event, a direct hit from a 50 mile wide Kuiper belt asteroid would wipe out everything. Not even cockroaches would make it into the new human-less age. Possibility 7/10. Damage 9/10
As I have emphasised, these events are all worst case scenario and hence highly unlikely. But, if one of these events do occur…Good Luck!
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